The Psychology of Magic: Confidence and Goal Setting

Chris Senhouse

While going through a self-examination of my Magic abilities, I wondered why it was that the great players of Magic always seem calm, collected, and most importantly, confident. We always joke around in Boston about how Dave Humphreys always has a plan to win, even in the most dire circumstances. He believes so much in his own abilities that he never gives up on any game, and it seems like this is a huge advantage. I've seen too many players, myself included, give up mentally on a game that there was still some slim chance of stealing. This effect can be subtle, even manifesting itself in small ways like not really considering the entire board position in a game because one is perceiving it as pointless.

It turns out that sport psychology examines issues of self-confidence quite a bit, and my previous columns have already explored how some cognitive methods like imagery and simulation can affect your confidence for the better, and hopefully improve your performance as a result. In this column I want to talk a little more about why confidence is important and another of the important techniques athletes use to maintain a proper level of it - goal setting.

Confidence

Psychologists have proven through experimentation that a proper level of self-confidence has an important correlation with performance. Here's a good quote I found:

"The amount of self-confidence that an individual possesses has been found to differ among elite and novice athletes... Self-confidence has been found to account for a greater proportion of variance in performance than cognitive or somatic anxiety. This suggests that the most powerful quality that elite performers posses is a high level of self-confidence which may act as a protective factor from cognitive anxiety."

It is important to base one's self-confidence on "observed reality." In a game like Magic, you can't allow the luck in the game to dominate your feelings about your play skill and get you down - A lot of emotional players fall into this trap. Having realistic expectations and acknowledging what was out of one's control will help lead to a correct level of confidence.

This is a fine line, however, and overconfidence can be a dangerous thing. I've seen plenty of players declare before they play their first match - "I'm winning this tournament!" and "I'm the best player here," only to promptly go 1-2, drop. There is an important distinction between confidence or faith in your own abilities and arrogance. Overconfidence can lead to unrealistic expectations that are not likely to be lived up to, and they can lead to poor strategic decisions. Here's a prime example that I experienced. I was playing in a large Team Sealed tournament with a team that was somewhat unexpected. The other two players on my team hadn't really played with each other, and one of them was going through a phase of overconfidence. He was insistent during the deck construction on giving all of the fliers in a color he was sharing with the other player to that player, leaving his deck with very few strong victory conditions. He told us not to worry, as he would be able to outplay his opponent. Let's just say that the overconfident teammate went 0-for-day while the other teammate played very well and is currently a Pro Tour regular.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is underconfidence, which is usually where I end up. While the player who begins with overconfidence goes through wild swings of seeming arrogance then self-deprecation when things can't live up to expectations, the underconfident player doesn't expect things to turn around. It can be a self-fulfilling prophecy that spirals out of control if it isn't kept in check. If you are underconfident, you will tend to play too conservative, fearful of making a mistake. There are some strategic risks that you have to make if you want to play optimally in Magic, and being underconfident will often cause failure by inhibiting these... which can only lead to less confidence! Underconfidence often leads to a lessened enjoyment of the sport - which is bad both because we're all at least somewhat playing the game for fun, and also because that tends to have a negative impact on performance as well.

Goal Setting

Ok, so we've established the not-too-surprising concept that a player with a proper level of confidence should do better in a competitive setting. Is there any way to improve a player's self-confidence as well as their skills at the same time? The answer is yes! The technique recommended by sport psychologists is goal setting. The idea is to maintain a repetitive cycle of setting and evaluating measurable goals. There are three steps involved in this process. First, one has to analyze their current abilities and expectations, and create goals. Then, obviously, the player tries to go out and implement the things they were striving to accomplish in the goals. The final step is to review the progress made on the goals, revise them and/or create new goals.

There are a few keys to using this structured approach to improvement. You need to be able to analyze the skills you want to work on. For Magic, this could be a simple realization like "I don't think I build sealed decks optimally" or "I'm not very good at complicated creature stalemate situations." An important facet here is not to make your goals based on outcomes, but rather on personal observations of your own performance. It's a good idea to write them down, precisely and positively. They should be realistic, and importantly, they should not be trying to top your previous best performance, but rather, your average performance.

For example, here are some bad goals for this technique:

• To win the Pro Tour Qualifier next weekend
• To qualify for the Pro Tour on my Limited rating
• To make money at Magic

Comparatively, here are some goals that would be acceptable:

• To improve my sideboarding decision-making
• To get closer to building sealed deck optimally
• To learn how to make close drafts pick decisions better

By having realistic goals that are achievable but perhaps slightly out of your immediate grasp, you will have enough time to accomplish something significant without discouraging yourself. It works well for professional athletes who make millions of dollars, so maybe you should give it a chance.

Feedback and Learning

The most important element to the goal setting process is being able to get feedback from the loop. You should always try to learn from your failures, especially those tied closely to your goal. Jamie Wakefield's famous "mistake die" is a classic example of using a feedback mechanism to improve a skill or technique. For those of you unfamiliar with it, the simple idea is to have a six sided die with you during each game, and use it to keep count of any small or subtle mistake you realize you've made. The idea is that the negative feedback you will be giving yourself will improve your awareness and carefulness, because you want to avoid having to bump up the mistake counter. If a goal was too unrealistic, make the next one easier. If it was too long and discouraging, make the next one a little easier to obtain.

One trap that I see players fall into, other than not analyzing themselves at all, is only to analyze or address when things go wrong or they fail. It is also important to analyze your successes. Think about how you got to you goal that you had set - could you have done it more effectively? Was it too easy? If necessary, make sure to set a harder goal the next time. I know of one team who is guilty of this. One of their goals was to improve their ability to Team Rochester draft. When their team lost a practice draft, you would often see them having heated discussions to figure out what went wrong - what picks were incorrect, whether they had played the matches correctly, and so on. However, when they won, they would draft the rares they were playing for and happily move on - although it is doubtful that everything in the draft and subsequent matches went perfectly and there is information there.

One last point about the actual goal setting process is that it is a malleable one. While working on one specific goal, make sure to take note of potential future ones, and be ready to set new ones once you get to where you want on current ones. Goal setting seems like a positive process that can only enhance a serious player's enjoyment of the game as well as improve their performance. I hope this discussion of it is in some way helpful to your abilities and enjoyment of Magic.