Prophesies are the basis of legends, when some all-knowing oracle pronounces what is to happen in the grave situation coming ahead. In
Diplomacy, however, players new and old often create circumstances where what they fear happening or project happening to themselves can be brought about by their own actions.
The Early Game
In a recent social game after a major tournament, the French and German players were planning a 1901 attack on England. The French were to move to the Channel, Picardy, and Spain, and the Germans were to move to Denmark, Ruhr, and Kiel, preparing for a supported attack in the Fall into the North Sea. When the Spring moves were read, France had ordered Army Paris to Burgundy with support from Marseilles and moved its fleet to the Mid-Atlantic Ocean. Immediately after reading the orders, the French and the German player went to talk. The French player opened the discussion by saying, "In the last game we played, we fought, so I was afraid that you would attack me again in this game." This is a classic self-fulfilling prophecy. France, fearing that Germany would attack by moving to Burgundy, made a deal and then immediately broke it, presenting the German player with proof that the French cannot be trusted. The result in this particular game was that the Germans quickly allied with the Italians and the English, and the French were the first out of the game. France never overcame his opening stab of the Germans. This sort of concern needs to be addressed right away so that the players can put it aside before the Spring '01 moves are written. In this and many similar cases, France would have been better off saying up front that he is distrustful. He could tell Germany that he intends to take Burgundy with support, but as each side does what they say they will, they build a new trust and eventually can come to a fresh agreement. The first lesson to learn from this is that if you have concerns over prior history, bring them out early. Second, it never pays to stab someone by going into defensive mode. If you are going to stab someone, do it in an offensive role by attacking and hurting them rather than just putting up a wall.
The Middle Game
In the middle turns of a game, when the power blocks are fluid or even unknown, there are times when paranoia reigns. One of the more amusing situations occurs when one of two allied players, during a tactical discussion, mentions to the other that he could gain two or three centers in a stab. The other player, who was until that moment focused on the enemy's centers, suddenly sees the opportunity and sure enough, stabs his ally. Never point out to an ally how he can hurt you unless you are certain you can counter every loss.
The Failed Disengagement
Sometimes, two powers or power blocks get engaged in a conflict and find it hard to withdraw. This is most easily seen in the French-Italian areas of the Gulf of Lyon/Western Mediterranean. Both France and Italy are sensitive to the presence of a hostile fleet in the Western Med., so once these areas are occupied by a potentially hostile fleet, the question becomes how to disengage. After a few tentative negotiations, both players are afraid to have the other there, so they move in. The enemy sees this presence as a constant threat and proof that the other side cannot be trusted. Each player unintionally reinforces the other's fears. This is a time when players must carefully arrange for a break in the logic of fear by making a step-by-step withdrawal one province at a time. In your
Diplomacy discussions, you must concentrate not on the fear of what could go wrong but on what went right. "We managed to neutralize the Western Med., now let's try to step back from Lyon." Sometimes this involves a series of bounces before moving back; from,say, Spain SC to the Mid Atlantic or Portugal.
Power Projections
Power blocks represent the greatest case of self-fulfilling prophecy as the stalemate lines fill in. A typical bilateral divide consists of either two powers on each side or one large power vs. any number of smaller, allied powers. As the major aggressor drives to get across the stalemate line, the other side solidifies behind the same line. The aggressive drive actually generates its own fear-driven stopping force. Eventually the line becomes so solid and the fear so great that the game ends in a draw. Some of the fastest drawn games happen when a heavy-handed western or eastern triple tries to surge across a line with the appearance of a united front. Avoiding this takes skillful diplomacy. The movement forward has to be conducted in a non-obvious manner so that the blocking force is not encouraged to form, or with very deft diplomacy to persuade everyone that this is a temporary issue. A strong use of anti-stab units in the offensive block and a slow progression is generally more successful than a major, obvious tactical push. Keep the diplomacy fluid, possibly staging some instability and encouraging instability on the other side. In a face-to-face game, limit your discussions with your partners and spend most of your time with the other side. This helps prevent the defenders from coalescing into a cohesive force. With a gradual passing of the stalemate lines, the chances of eventual victory are enhanced.
The End Game Death Prophecy
As a game winds down in a three-power structure (the most common result among veteran players), there is a tendency for one player to announce that "if you attack me, I will throw the game to the other player." When this happens, there may be a tactical weakness that can be exploited by only one of the other players. Among experienced players, this is a signal that the player is projecting his own death. What likely will happen next is that the other two powers agree to grind down the third. As the grinding proceeds, the player under attack will oscillate back and forth, trying to throw the game to one player and then to the other in what can be a very entertaining display of
Diplomacy -- if you enjoy sadistic voyeurism. It is also the supreme test of the two dominant players' abilities to eliminate the third player and arrive at a 17-17 draw on a stable stalemate line. When done, it is a work of art both diplomatically and tactically. It is so rare that it's among the most prized games. Players will remember such a draw longer than any typical win.
Edi Birsan is considered the first Diplomacy world champion for his win in 1971BC, the first championship invitational game. He has won numerous championship games since then in North America and worldwide and is universally considered one of the game's top players. More importantly, he has striven tirelessly for over three decades to promote Diplomacy play in all its forms, at all levels, all around the world.
