Q: I wanted to know how much you think Magic is skill-based and how much luck plays a role in it. My experience showed me that even players who are not that experienced or still make some crucial mistakes can win a bigger tournament (even a PTQ), and some players whom I totally respect for their skills end up with a 2-2 or even a 1-3 record at Friday Night Magic.
-Wesimo Al-Bacha
A: That's a question every Magic player asks himself hundreds of times. How much "luck" is involved in a Magic game?
To answer this question, we first have to define what "luck" is. For now, let's say that "luck" is composed of all the random factors you encounter. In a tournament, that means pairings and in-game parameters.
The pairings in Constructed tournaments are a major factor of one's success. There are always decks against which you don't want to play and whether you play against them or not is totally out of your control. Of course, the whole point of a Constructed tournament is to play with the statistics, and play a deck that will give you the best odds to beat your opponents (metagame choice).
In a game, "luck" includes the sequences of cards in both libraries. Players call it "luck," but "randomness" would probably be more accurate. "Luck" would define more how "randomness" gives advantage to one player. To try to find out how much "randomness" matters, let's take a few examples:
1. Two players, with exact same skill level (hypothetically), playing the same decks. The outcome of the match will depend 100 percent on how the cards are distributed.
2. Two players, playing the same decks, with different skill levels. The outcome of the match will depend on how big the difference is between the two players, and how the cards are distributed.
In the long run:
Between two high-class players, the better player will have between 56 percent and 63 percent chance to win the match.Between a high-class player and a casual/"OK" player, the odds would be more 65-85 percent depending on how "bad" the latter is. Where do I pull these stats? Where does 58-63 percent come from? Check the Hall of Famers' career statistics tab on their profile pages. All of them are among the best players in the world (just pretend I'm not in there, for the sake of this answer!). Jon Finkel, undeniably the best player of the 10, has won 63.3 percent his matches in premier tournaments (Nationals, Grand Prix, Pro Tours, Worlds). If you check the other profiles, you'll see that the "worst" stats don't go below 56 percent.
Integrating ALL the random factors into one single equation is probably impossible (and wouldn't fit in my column anyway!). Let's just say that the in-game "luck factor" depends on the play-level difference between the two players – a worse player needs more help from random factors in order to win a match against a better player.